Rohingya repatriation: various actors need to be considered

Bangladesh is trying to resolve the burden of the Rohingya crisis by repatriating the Rohingyas to Myanmar who have been staying in Bangladesh for decades. Bangladesh has also agreed to the voluntary, safe, dignified, and sustainable repatriation of Rohingyas without refoulement. After the  crisis of 2017, Bangladesh made an agreement with the Myanmar government in November 2017 and then took part in meetings with Myanmar government representatives, China and other international mediators to start the repatriation process. However, five years later not a single Rohingya has been repatriated to Myanmar. Still, more than 1.3 million Rohingyas have been living in Bangladesh and most of them are staying in the 33 makeshift camps in Cox’s Bazar.

From 2017 to 2020 only the Myanmar government of Suu Kyi backed by the military [Tatmadaw], was considered responsible for the Rohingya repatriation process. But from the beginning of 2021 another powerful party, the Arakan Army [AA], an ethnic armed organisation from Rakhine state, emerged and now controls the majority of Rakhine state. Now the question is who is the main actor in the repatriation process of Rohingyas from Bangladesh: the Tatmadaw (the current Junta government) or the AA (the current Rakhine government)? If the current Junta government agreed to repatriate Rohingyas from Bangladesh how would this succeed without approved consent from the AA? If the NUG (National Unity Government), an anti-Junta shadow government formed in April 2021, returns to power, what will their position be regarding Rohingya repatriation?

Rakhine: The birthplace of the Rohingya

The Rohingya, an ethnic religious minority group, the majority of whom are Muslims, have lived in the Rakhine state of Myanmar from time immemorial. Before the 2017 exodus there were over one million Rohingyas residing in Rakhine who were without citizenship.  After the independence of Myanmar in 1948, the Rohingya people started to lose their rights and after 1982 with the enactment of apartheid like citizenship laws  they became stateless. Since 1962 the Rohingyas were the target of the Tatmadaw, and the Army authority always tried to expel the Rohingyas from Myanmar through their discriminatory policies. In 2017 under the brutal tactics of the Tatmadaw, more than 90% of Rohingyas were forced to leave their motherland, Myanmar.

The Arakan Army: The controlling authority of Rakhine

Rakhine (formerly known as Arakan) was conquered and colonized by various powers since the arrival of Kongbaung dynasty in 1785. Burmese King Boddawphaya invaded the Arakan (Rakhine) in 1785 and at that time some 35,000 Arakan Muslims (Rohingya) were forced to leave Rakhine state. This was the first exodus of Rohingya towards Bengal. The Rakhine state was then controlled by external forces including  Britain (1824 – 1942), Japan (1942 – 1945), and Britain a second time (1945 – 1948). In 1948 Myanmar gained its independence.   Following independence,  Rakhine was under the control of the Civilian Government (1948-1962), the Military Government  (1962-2015), and the Suu Kyi Government  (2016-2021). The Myanmar Army or Tatmadaw took power  through a coup on 1 February 2021 but even before this, the control of Rakhine state had begun to fall under  the control of the AA-ULA [Arakan Army – United League of Arakan] particularly after a ceasefire agreement in December 2020.

Recent reports suggest that the Rakhine government is now run by the de facto AA-ULA government structure. Civilian works have been performed by the AA’s administrative branch, known as the Arakan People’s Authority [APA]. The APA has its own specialized judicial, police and tax system. In two interviews given to the Bangladesh daily newspaper the Prothom Alo and the Hong-Kong based  Asia Times in January 2022, the AA’a leader, General Twan Mrat Naing, discussed the group’s position in Rakhine state and he also gave his views on the ongoing Rohingya crisis. In the interviews, General Naing stated he advocated the ULA-AA’s objective of achieving internal sovereignty in the short term while maintaining the long-term goal of independence.

The AA and NUG

The NUG, the shadow government of Myanmar formed by lawmakers elected in the annulled 2020 polls showed positive sentiment towards the Rohingya minority, recognizing the discrimination and human rights abuses against them. The NUG was the first political organization of Myanmar who, after 1962, recognized the Rohingya as a specific ethnicity.  Though the NUG’s main aim is to overthrow the military junta, their recognition of Rohingya identity may help the ethnic group to recognise and establish their rights. However, analysts observe that even if the NUG can obtain power by defeating the Tatmadaw, the AA will still be the most powerful actor in Rakhine state.

Rohingya repatriation – who is the main actor in Myanmar?

As state power is in the hands of the Tatmadaw, the main actor for the Rohingya repatriation will undoubtedly be the military junta. But, as Rakhine is under the control of the AA, they can play an important role in the repatriation process of Rohingyas. Bangladesh has still not entered formal talks with the AA but there are proposals from various ends that Bangladesh should start negotiations with the ULA-AA to work towards  the repatriation  of Rohingyas who are still waiting to return. During the interview, the AA leader acknowledged that the issues facing the ‘Rohingya’ were ‘a fundamental question of human rights.’

The NUG has indicated a pro-repatriation stance and the majority of Myanmar people who once supported negative narratives about the Rohingya have now revealed some sympathy four years after the  massacres against them. The AA also showed its intention to work for the welfare of all the ethnic groups including the Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine state. Though the AA and Tatmadaw have maintained a ceasefire since the end of 2020, the situation may change at any time. So, an intensive diplomatic effort from international organizations is needed so that Rohingya refugees can return to their motherland before the peaceful situation in Rakhine state deteriorates. The Crisis Group in its June 2022 report titled ‘Avoiding a Return to War in Myanmar’s Rakhine State,’ also suggests that Naypyitaw and Dhaka should open dialogue with the Arakan Army on Rohingya repatriation.